From The Table To The Bedroom

The Independent Blogger, as in me (I am based at The Office of the Independent Blogger) considers himself a bit of an expert on the problems in North Korea.

We're going back to the negotiating table with the North Koreans, but I predict they'll end pretty soon, with the United States telling North Korea to go to its room for being a bad girl, prompting the Koreans to pout and leave the house, off to brood in the loving arms of their significant other (the Chinese). Before I get to why I believe these talks will fail, there's a simple question to ask: How did we get back to the table, after all the fussing and the feuding that went on? Fred Kaplan has the scoop.

Verification issues will plague this Administration, if they can work out a deal. But as Kaplan points out, the Clinton Administration's Agreed Framework took fifty meetings to hammer out. Will the Bushes have that level of patience? I don't look at Condoleezza Rice and see a woman that's willing to negotiate: I see a hawk of the worst kind.

The Bush White House is taking some good first steps, apparently offering massive energy aid and dropping its "hostile policy." Bush recently referred to Jung as "Mr. Kim Jung Il", and Rice has stopped referring to that country as an "outpost of tyranny," which is something incredibly important in Asian diplomacy: Respect. They'll have to go further, however. Kim Jung wants us to establish full Diplomatic relations with him as well as to give him abundant supplies of food and energy. Will Bush do that, alienating his base in the process?

When President Clinton signed the Agreed Framework he never delivered on his promises of aid or diplomatic status because the Republicans in Congress blocked him, angry at him for "giving away the farm." Given that experience -- promises that never materialized -- the North Koreans will be even more hesitant to trust America, which means that Bush may have to blindly trust North Korea, which means that he may have to give them extra food and energy supplies before receiving anything in return, something that I don't see George W. Bush as likely to do.

Then what will the Koreans do, if we don't? Mistrust us more and assume that his promises, our deal, won't mean anything, like Clinton's, which would probably cause them to increase their weapons program covertly or even overtly. I'm optimistic about the possibility of putting this nuclear genie back into its radioactive bottle, but I do worry that it may just be too late. If it is, I think the best we can hope for is to open North Korea to the world like Nixon did China.